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中国癌症防治杂志

中国癌症防治杂志 ›› 2026, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (1): 12-18.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-5671.2026.01.02

• 癌情监测 • 上一篇    下一篇

2010—2021年甘肃省白血病发病率分析及未来趋势预测

  

  1. 甘肃省武威肿瘤医院；甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院；甘肃省肿瘤医院肿瘤流行病研究中心；悉尼大学工程学院
  • 出版日期:2026-02-25 发布日期:2026-03-26
  • 通讯作者: 张雁山 E-mail：3280792349@qq.com；刘玉琴 E-mail：liuyq970930@126.com

Analysis of leukemia incidence in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021 and the future trend prediction

  • Online:2026-02-25 Published:2026-03-26

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摘要： 目的 分析2010—2021年甘肃省肿瘤登记地区白血病发病趋势并预测2022—2030年发病情况。方法 基于甘肃省15个肿瘤登记处2010—2021年白血病发病数据，按年龄、性别及城乡分布计算发病率。采用2000年中国标准人口结构计算中国人口年龄标准化发病率(age⁃standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population，ASIRC）。通过Joinpoint 回归模型分析发病率趋势，计算年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）、平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）及其95%置信区间（confidence interval，CI）。基于贝叶斯年龄⁃时期⁃队列（Bayesian age⁃period⁃cohort, BAPC）模型预测2022—2030年甘肃省白血病发病率。结果  2010—2021年甘肃省ASIRC总体呈下降趋势(AAPC=-4.58%，95%CI：-9.04%~0.09%，P=-0.055），其在2019—2021年呈明显下降趋势（APC=-26.11%，P=0.014）。男性ASIRC整体高于女性，但两者下降趋势均无统计学意义（均P>0.05）。农村地区ASIRC呈明显下降趋势(AAPC=⁃7.76%，95%CI：-14.04%~-1.03%，P=0.025）。0~49岁年龄组ASIRC整体呈下降趋势，50岁后则呈波动升高的态势。BAPC模型预测全省、男性、城市地区、农村地区的白血病ASIRC将由2021年的2.60/10万、3.00/10万、2.73/10万、2.51/10万分别下降至2030年的0.93/10万、1.28/10万、0.93/10万、2.17/10万；女性的ASIRC将由2021年的2.18/10万上升至2030年的2.94/10万。结论 2010—2021年甘肃省白血病ASIRC整体呈下降趋势，尤其农村地区下降明显。0~49岁年龄组ASIRC呈下降趋势，50岁后呈波动上升趋势。至2030年，白血病ASIRC将进一步下降，提示防控措施已取得成效，但仍需强化高危人群的干预与长期监测。

关键词: 白血病, 发病趋势, 预测, 贝叶斯年龄?时期?队列模型, 甘肃省

Abstract: Objective In 2022, an estimated 81,900 new cases of leukemia were reported  in China, ranking 12th among domestic malignant tumors. The epidemiological characteristics of leukemia are influenced by regional environment and the distribution of medical resources. This study analyzes the trends in leukemia incidence within the cancer registration areas of Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021 and projects the incidence rates from 2022 to 2030. Methods Based on leukemia incidence data from 15 cancer registries in Gansu Province between 2010 and 2021, incidence rates were calculated by age, sex, and urban⁃rural distribution. The age⁃standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population (ASIRC) was calculated using the 2000 Chinese standard population structure. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze incidence trends, calculating the annual percentage change (APC), average annual percentage change (AAPC), and their 95% confidence interval (CI). The Bayesian age⁃period⁃cohort (BAPC) model was applied to predict leukemia incidence in Gansu Province from 2022 to 2030. Results From 2010 to 2021, the overall ASIRC in Gansu Province showed a non‑significant downward trend (AAPC = −4.58%, 95%CI: −9.04% to 0.09%, P=0.055), with a significant decline observed from 2019 to 2021 (APC = −26.11%, P=0.014). The ASIRC level was higher in male than in female, but neither showed a statistically significant downward trend (all P>0.05). No significant change was found in urban areas (AAPC=0.24%, 95%CI: −5.62% to 6.46%, P=0.939), while rural areas exhibited a significant downward trend (AAPC=−7.76%, 95%CI: −14.04% to −1.03%, P=0.025). From 2010 to 2021 in Gansu Province, the ASIRC change of leukemia in the 0-29 and 40-49 age groups decreased at average annual rates of 5.09% and 1.89%, respectively. The results of birth cohort analysis showed that the ASIRC of leukemia in the early birth cohort was at a high level particularly among individuals aged over 70 years. Successive birth cohorts showed declining ASIRC for aged 0-49 years, while those aged ≥50 years demonstrated fluctuating upward trend. The BAPC model predicted that the ASIRC of leukemia for the overall population, male, urban areas, and rural areas would decline from 2.60/105, 3.00/105, 2.73/105, and 2.51/105 in 2021 to 0.93/105, 1.28/105, 0.93/105, and 2.17/105 in 2030, respectively. In contrast, the ASIRC for female would increase from 2.18/105 in 2021 to 2.94/105 in 2030. Conclusions From 2010 to 2021, the ASIRC of leukemia in Gansu Province declined overall, with a particularly noticeable decrease in rural areas. The ASIRC in the 0-49 age group showed a declining trend, while it fluctuates upward after the age 50. The ASIRC of leukemia further declines by 2030, suggesting that prevention and control measures have achieved results. However, continued efforts are needed to strengthen interventions for high⁃risk groups and maintain long⁃term surveillance.

Key words: Leukemia, Incidence trend, Prediction, Bayesian age?period?cohort model, Gansu Province

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  • 引用本文

    巩秦黎, 叶延程, 梁雪雪, 秦天燕, 丁高恒, 朱佳禾, 王佳, 赵晓莉, 王博乐, 刘玉琴, 张雁山. 2010—2021年甘肃省白血病发病率分析及未来趋势预测[J]. 中国癌症防治杂志, 2026, 18(1): 12-18.

    Gong Qinli, Ye Yancheng, Liang Xuexue, Qin Tianyan, Ding Gaoheng, Zhu Jiahe, Wang Jia, Zhao Xiaoli, Wang Bole, Liu Yuqin, Zhang Yanshan. Analysis of leukemia incidence in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021 and the future trend prediction[J]. Chinese Journal of Oncology Prevention and Treatment, 2026, 18(1): 12-18.