子宫颈癌；疾病负担；预测分析；年龄-时期-队列模型," /> 子宫颈癌；疾病负担；预测分析；年龄-时期-队列模型,"/> Cervical cancer,Disease burden,Forecasting analysis,Age?period?cohort model,"/> 1990—2021年中国子宫颈癌的发病、死亡与疾病负担：过去30年的趋势与未来预测

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中国癌症防治杂志

中国癌症防治杂志 ›› 2024, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (6): 694-700.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-5671.2024.06.09

• 癌情监测 • 上一篇    下一篇

1990—2021年中国子宫颈癌的发病、死亡与疾病负担：过去30年的趋势与未来预测

  

  1. 首都医科大学附属北京康复医院劳模健康管理中心
  • 出版日期:2024-12-25 发布日期:2025-01-03
  • 通讯作者: 李娜 E-mail：362056504@qq.com

Incidence,mortality,and disease burden of cervical cancer in China,1990—2021: trends over the past  30 years and future prediction

  • Online:2024-12-25 Published:2025-01-03

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摘要： 目的 分析1990—2021年中国子宫颈癌的发病、死亡与疾病负担情况，为子宫颈癌的预防提供依据。方法 利用2021全球疾病负担研究数据库，采用Joinpoint回归模型分析子宫颈癌标化发病率、标化死亡率和标化伤残调整寿命年（disability adjusted life years，DALY）率的变化趋势。基于年龄-时期-队列模型探讨子宫颈癌的年龄效应、时期效应和队列效应。采用灰色预测模型GM（1，1）预测2022—2036年子宫颈癌的标化发病率、标化死亡率及标化DALY率的变化趋势。结果 1990—2021年中国子宫颈癌标化发病率呈逐年上升趋势［平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）=0.39%］，而标化死亡率（AAPC=-1.34%）和标化DALY率（AAPC=-1.32%）整体呈逐年降低趋势。年龄效应结果显示，1990—2021年中国子宫颈癌的发病率在55~59岁年龄组和70~74岁年龄组出现两次高峰，DALY率在50~54岁年龄组出现1次小高峰，死亡率则随着年龄的增长逐年升高。时期效应分析表明，发病率的相对危险度（relative risk，RR）值随时间呈波动变化，而死亡率和DALY率的RR值则随时间呈下降趋势。队列效应分析显示，发病率的RR值随时间呈上升趋势，而死亡率和DALY率的RR值随时间呈下降趋势。预测结果显示，2022—2036年中国子宫颈癌标化发病率将从2022年的14.04/10万上升至2036年的16.03/10万。标化死亡率将从2022年的4.64/10万下降至2036年的4.03/10万，标化DALY率将从2022年的149.99/10万下降至2036年的129.80/10万。结论 1990—2021年中国子宫颈癌标化发病率呈上升趋势，而标化死亡率和标化DALY率呈下降趋势。这一变化趋势均在一定程度上受年龄、时期及队列效应的综合影响。未来防控策略应继续加强疫苗接种、筛查措施的覆盖，以应对发病率上升带来的挑战。

关键词: 子宫颈癌；疾病负担；预测分析；年龄-时期-队列模型')">">子宫颈癌；疾病负担；预测分析；年龄-时期-队列模型

Abstract: Objective To analyze the incidence, mortality and disease burden of cervical cancer in China from 1990 to 2021, and to provide evidence for the prevention of cervical cancer. Methods Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study database, the standardized incidence, standardized mortality and disability⁃adjusted life years (DALY ) rate of cervical cancer were analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model. Based on the age⁃period⁃cohort model, the age, period and cohort effects of cervical cancer were investigated. The grey prediction model GM (1, 1) was used to predict the standardized incidence, standardized mortality and disease burden of cervical cancer from 2022 to 2036. Results From 1990 to 2021, the standardized incidence of cervical cancer in China showed an annually increasing trend ［average annual percentage change (AAPC)=0.39%］. The standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate showed a decreasing trend (AAPCstandardized mortality=-1.34%, AAPCstandardized DALY rate=-1.32%). The results of age⁃period⁃cohort effect showed that from 1990 to 2021, the incidence of cervical cancer in China peaked twice in the 55-59 age group and 70-74 age group, respectively; the DALY rate peaked once in the 50-54 age group; the mortality rate increased annually with the increase of age. The period effect analysis showed that the relative risk (RR) value of incidence of cervical cancer fluctuated with time, and the RR value of mortality and DALYs rate decreased with time. Cohort effect analysis showed that with the change of time, the RR value of incidence showed an upward trend, and the RR value of mortality and DALY rate decreased. The predicted results showed that the standardized incidence of cervical cancer in China will increase from 14.04/105  in 2022 to 16.03/105 in 2036, the standardized mortality will decrease from 4.64/105  in 2022 to 4.03/105 in 2036, and the DALY rate will decrease from 149.99 /105  in 2022 to 129.80 /105  in 2036. Conclusions The standardized incidence of cervical cancer in China is increasing annually, while the standardized mortality rate and DALY rate will decrease year by year in the future. The trend of change is affected by age, period and cohort to varying degrees. In the future, prevention and control strategies should continue to strengthen the coverage of vaccination and screening measures to cope with the challenges brought by the increasing incidence.

Key words: Cervical cancer')">Cervical cancer, Disease burden, Forecasting analysis, Age?period?cohort model

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  • 引用本文

    宣文贞, 巩建敏, 李娜. 1990—2021年中国子宫颈癌的发病、死亡与疾病负担：过去30年的趋势与未来预测[J]. 中国癌症防治杂志, 2024, 16(6): 694-700.

    XUAN Wenzhen, GONG Jianmin, LI Na. Incidence,mortality,and disease burden of cervical cancer in China,1990—2021: trends over the past  30 years and future prediction[J]. Chinese Journal of Oncology Prevention and Treatment, 2024, 16(6): 694-700.