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中国癌症防治杂志

中国癌症防治杂志 ›› 2025, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (6): 690-696.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-5671.2025.06.06

• 癌情监测 • 上一篇    下一篇

2010—2021年甘肃省肺癌发病率和死亡率分析及未来趋势预测

  

  1. 甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院；甘肃省肿瘤医院肿瘤流行病研究中心
  • 出版日期:2025-12-25 发布日期:2026-02-02
  • 通讯作者: 刘玉琴 E-mail：liuyq970930@126.com

Analysis of lung cancer incidence and mortality in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021 and the future trend prediction

  • Online:2025-12-25 Published:2026-02-02

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摘要： 目的 分析2010—2021年甘肃省肺癌发病及死亡情况并预测其2022—2030年的趋势。 方法 收集并整理2010—2021年甘肃省15个肿瘤登记处的肺癌登记数据，按年龄组、性别和城乡分布计算中国人口年龄标准化发病率(age⁃standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population,ASIRC)及年龄标准化死亡率(age⁃standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population, ASMRC)。采用Joinpoint软件计算年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）及平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（Bayesian age⁃period⁃cohort，BAPC）模型预测2022—2030年肺癌发病及死亡变化趋势。结果 2010—2021年甘肃省肺癌的ASIRC与ASMRC均持续上升，ASIRC年均上升0.85%(AAPC=0.85%,95%CI:-0.81%~2.54%,P=0.283），其中城市地区年均上升2.44%（AAPC=2.44%,95%CI:0.71%~4.19%,P=0.010），农村地区年均下降0.61%（AAPC=-0.61%,95%CI:-4.39%~3.31%,P=0.756），男性年均上升0.69%（AAPC=0.69%,95%CI:-0.97%~2.38%,P=0.381），女性年均上升1.29%（AAPC=1.29%,95%CI:-0.72%~3.33%, P=0.184）；ASMRC年均上升1.56%（AAPC=1.56%,95%CI:-2.77%~6.07%,P=0.447），其中城市地区年均上升3.28%（AAPC=3.28%,95%CI:-6.58%~14.17%,P=0.529），农村地区年均下降2.11%（AAPC=-2.11%,95%CI:-5.77%~1.68%,P=0.271），男性年均上升2.30%（AAPC=2.30%,95%CI:-2.06%~6.86%,P=0.271），女性年均下降0.27%（AAPC=-0.27%，95%CI:-6.99%~6.93%,P=0.939）。≥40岁各年龄组ASIRC及ASMRC均随年龄增长而呈波动升高趋势。BAPC模型预测显示，2022—2030年全省肺癌的ASIRC呈上升趋势、ASMRC呈下降趋势。结论 2010一2021年甘肃省肺癌ASIRC和ASMRC持续上升，且40岁及以上居民的肺癌发病和死亡风险随年龄增长而波动上升。BAPC模型预测至2030年，ASIRC将持续上升,而ASMRC有望下降。未来仍需加强肺癌防控力度，以降低肺癌发病与死亡风险。

关键词: 肺癌, 发病趋势, 死亡趋势, 预测, 甘肃

Abstract: Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality of lung cancer in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021 and predict its trends from 2022 to 2030. Methods Lung cancer registration data from 15 cancer registries in Gansu Province between 2010 and 2021 were collected and collated. The study calculated the age⁃standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population (ASIRC), and age⁃standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population (ASMRC) by age group, gender and urban⁃rural distribution. Joinpoint software was used to calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). Bayesian age⁃period⁃cohort (BAPC) model was employed to forecast trends in lung cancer incidence and mortality from 2022 to 2030.  Results From 2010 to 2021, both the ASIRC and ASMRC for lung cancer in Gansu Province showed a sustained upward trend. ASIRC rose by an average of 0.85% annually (AAPC=0.85%, 95%CI: -0.81% to 2.54%, P=0.283), with a 2.44% increase in urban (AAPC=2.44%, 95%CI: 0.71% to 4.19%, P=0.010), a 0.61% decline in rural (AAPC=-0.61%, 95%CI: -4.39% to 3.31%, P=0.756); a 0.69% increase among males (AAPC=0.69%, 95%CI: -0.97% to 2.38%, P=0.381) , and a 1.29% increase among females (AAPC=1.29%, 95%CI: -0.72% to 3.33%, P=0.184). ASMRC by an average of 1.56% annually (AAPC=1.56%, 95%CI: -2.77% to 6.07%, P=0.447), with a 3.28% increase in urban (AAPC=3.28%, 95%CI: -6.58% to 14.17%; P=0.529), a 2.11% decline in rural (AAPC=-2.11%, 95%CI:-5.77% to 1.68%, P=0.271), a 2.30% increase among males (AAPC=2.30%, 95%CI: -2.06% to 6.86%, P=0.271), and a 0.27% decline among females (AAPC=-0.27%, 95%CI: -6.99% to 6.93%, P=0.939). Both ASIRC and ASMRC showed fluctuating upward trend with age across all age groups ≥40 years. BAPC projections indicated that the ASIRC of lung cancer in Gansu Province would rise while ASMRC would decline during 2022 to 2030. Conclusions From 2010 to 2021, the ASIRC and ASMRC of lung cancer in Gansu Province continued to rise, with the risk of lung cancer occurrence and death among residents aged 40 and above fluctuating and increasing with age. The BAPC model predicts that by 2030, the ASIRC will persistently rise, while the ASMRC is expected to decline. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of lung cancer in order to reduce the risks of lung cancer.

Key words: Lung cancer, Incidence trend, Mortality trend, Prediction, Gansu

中图分类号: 

  • R734.2