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Construction and verification of the prognosis evaluation model for patients in hepatocellular carcinoma with portal vein tumor thrombus after hepatectomy based on the nomogram
ZHANG Lei, ZHAO Xiulei, KONG Deshuai, LI Jinchao, WANG Zhenyong, LIU Ruhai, CHAI Wei
2021, 13 (5):
518-523.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-5671.2021.05.12
Objective To analyze the factors affecting the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma with portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT-HCC) after hepatectomy, and to construct and verify the prognostic evaluation model based on the nomogram model. Methods This retrospective cohort study selected patients with PVTT-HCC who underwent hepatectomy in Cangzhou Central Hospital from January 2008 to November 2017 as the research subjects, and the follow-up was as of January 2021. The main predicted outcome was the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates. The patients were randomly divided into training cohort and validation cohort by a ratio of 7∶3. The Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to analyze the impact of prognosis in the training cohort, and a nomogram model was constructed based on the influencing factors. Meanwhile, C-index was used to evaluate the distinction of the model in both the training cohort and the validation cohort, and the consistency curve was used to evaluate the calibration of the model. Results A total of 231 patients met the inclusion and exclusion criteria, including 162 cases of the training cohort and 69 cases of the validation cohort. The Cox proportional hazard regression model showed that AFP≥400 μg/L, AST≥40 U/L, ALP≥80 U/L, number of tumors >1 and tumor envelope incompleteness were risk factors affecting the prognosis. The C-index of the nomogram model predicted that the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 0.826 (95%CI: 0.791-0.861), 0.818 (95%CI: 0.782-0.854), and 0.781 (95%CI: 0.742-0.820), respectively, in the training cohort, and 0.814 (95%CI: 0.777-0.851), 0.798 (95%CI: 0.758-0.837), and 0.769 (95%CI: 0.728-0.810), respectively, in the validation cohort. The calibration curves showed that the nomogram model had a good calibration degree in both the training cohort and the validation cohort. Conclusions The nomogram model constructed in this study can accurately predict the prognosis of patients with PVTT-HCC.
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