关键词: 宫颈癌, 疾病负担, 发病率, 死亡率, 年龄?时期?队列模型

Abstract: Objective To analyze the current status and epidemic trend of the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in China in 1990—2019. Methods Based on the data of the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019), incidence and mortality were selected as the analysis indicators. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the changes in the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer, and the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) values were calculated. The effects of age, period and cohort on the changes in incidence and mortality were analyzed based on the age⁃period⁃cohort model. Results In 1990—2019, both the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in China showed an increasing trend, with an average annual increase of 2.80% and 1.79%, respectively. The results of the age⁃period⁃cohort model showed that the longitudinal age curve of the cervical cancer incidence in China in 1990—2019 first increased and then decreased, reaching a peak of 29.09/105 (95%CI: 23.66/10⁵-35.75/10⁵) at age 70-74. The longitudinal age curve of mortality showed an upward trend, reaching a peak of 31.85/105 (95%CI: 28.30 /10⁵-35.84/10⁵) at age 85-89. The incidence risk of cervical cancer in Chinese women increased gradually, and the mortality risk showed a decreasing trend  in 1990—1994 to 1995—1999. With 2000—2004 (RR=1.00) being the control group, the mortality increased first and then decreased in 2005—2009. The women born later had a higher risk of incidence and a lower risk of death in cervical cancer. Conclusions The trends of incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in China showed an upward trend in 1990—2019. Those women born later have a higher risk of incidence in cervical cancer, and the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer should be further strengthened.

Key words: Cervical cancer, Burden of disease, Incidence, Mortality, Age?period?cohort model