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中国癌症防治杂志

中国癌症防治杂志 ›› 2023, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (1): 38-44.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-5671.2023.01.06

• 癌情监测 • 上一篇    下一篇

2011—2015年合肥市消化系统恶性肿瘤发病趋势分析

  

  1. 安徽医科大学第一临床医学院肿瘤学系;合肥市疾病预防控制中心；安徽医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学与卫生统计学系；安徽省疾病预防控制中心
  • 出版日期:2023-02-25 发布日期:2023-03-01
  • 通讯作者: 查震球 E-mail： zhenqiuzha@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    安徽省重点研发计划项目（1704a0802156）；安徽高校自然科学研究重点项目（KJ2017A189）

Analysis of the incidence trend of malignant tumors of digestive system in Hefei, 2011—2015

  • Online:2023-02-25 Published:2023-03-01

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摘要： 目的 分析2011—2015年合肥市消化系统恶性肿瘤发病特征和变化趋势。方法 收集2011—2015年合肥市消化系统恶性肿瘤发病数据，计算粗发病率、中国人口标化发病率、世界人口标化发病率等，采用Joinpoint软件计算中标发病率的年度变化百分比（annual percent change，APC）了解消化系统恶性肿瘤发病率随时间变化趋势，同时计算粗发病率的每岁变化百分比（APC）和平均每岁变化百分比（average annual percent change，AAPC），评价男性和女性、城市和农村地区的消化系统恶性肿瘤发病年龄变化趋势。 结果 2011—2015年合肥市消化系统恶性肿瘤发病例数为53 990例，粗发病率为162.29/10万，中标率为135.57/10万，世标率为135.93/10万，占全部恶性肿瘤新发病例总数的55.66%。5年间总体发病率逐渐升高，但变化趋势不明显（APC=2.36%，95%CI：-7.75%~13.58%，P=0.527）。发病前5位分别为胃癌、食管癌、结直肠癌、肝癌和胰腺癌，占全部恶性肿瘤新发病例总数的53.64%，其中结直肠癌中标发病率随时间持续上升（APC=9.82%，95%CI：0.86%~19.57%，P=0.039），其余癌种发病率虽然有所上升，但是变化趋势不明显（均P>0.05）。5年间总体发病率随年龄增长逐渐升高，在30岁以后快速上升。不同性别、城乡年龄别发病率变化趋势一致，分别在≥25岁年龄段（APC=9.60%，95%CI：8.01%~11.20%，P<0.001）和≥20岁年龄段（APC=10.74%，95%CI：9.30%~12.21%，P<0.001）迅速上升，其中在≥40岁人群中，男性发病率均高于女性；全部消化系统恶性肿瘤、胃癌、食管癌在≥20岁人群中，农村地区发病率均高于城市地区；而在≥50岁人群中，城市地区结直肠癌及胰腺癌发病率高于农村地区。 结论 2011—2015年合肥市消化系统恶性肿瘤发病水平逐渐上升，但总体变化趋势较平稳，表现为男性高于女性，农村地区高于城市地区，且不同性别、城乡年龄别发病率变化趋势一致的流行特征，未来合肥市仍需加强对消化系统恶性肿瘤的防治工作。

关键词: 消化系统恶性肿瘤, 发病率, 年龄, Joinpoint分析

Abstract: Objective To analyze the incidence characteristics and changing trends of malignant tumors of digestive system in Hefei from 2011 to 2015. Methods The incidence data of malignant tumors of digestive system in Hefei from 2011 to 2015 were collected, and the crude incidence rate (CIR), age⁃standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population (ASIRC), and age⁃standardized incidence rate by Segi's world population (ASIRW) were calculated. The annual percent change (APC) of the ASIRC was calculated by using Joinpoint software to evaluate the trend of the incidence of malignant tumors in the digestive system over time, and the APC and average annual percent change (AAPC) of crude incidence were also calculated to evaluate the trends of age of digestive malignant tumors incidence with respect to gender and urban⁃rural areas. Results From 2011 to 2015, the number of digestive system malignancies in Hefei was 53, 990 cases, with CIR of 162.29/105, ASIRC of 135.57/105 and ASIRW of 135.93/105, accounting for 55.66% of the total number of new malignant cases. The overall incidence gradually increased during 5 years, but the trend was not significant (APC=2.36%, 95%CI: -7.75%-13.58%, P=0.527). The top 5 tumors in incidence were gastric cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer, liver cancer, and pancreatic cancer, accounting for 53.64% of the total number of new malignant cases, among which the incidence of colorectal cancer continued to rise over time(APC=9.82%, 95%CI: 0.86%-19.57%, P=0.039), while the incidence of other cancers were increased, though insignificantly (all P>0.05). The overall incidence increased gradually with age over the 5⁃year period and rapidly after the age of 30 years old. The incidence rates of age⁃specific in different genders and urban/rural areas were consistent, and the incidence increased rapidly in the age group of ≥25 years old (APC=9.60%, 95%CI: 8.01%-11.20%, P<0.001) and the age group of ≥20 years old (APC=10.74%, 95%CI: 9.30%-12.21%, P<0.001), respectively, among which the incidence in the age group of ≥40 years old were higher in males than in females. The incidence of malignant tumor of digestive system, gastric cancer and esophageal cancer were higher in rural areas than in urban areas in the age group of ≥20 years old, while the incidence of colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer were higher in urban areas than in rural areas in the age group of ≥ 50 years old. Conclusions  From 2011 to 2015, the incidence of malignant tumors of the digestive system in Hefei increased gradually, but the overall trend of change was relatively stable, showing that male were higher than female and rural areas were higher than urban areas. The incidence trends of age⁃specific in different genders and areas were consistent. In the future, Hefei still needs to strengthen the prevention and treatment of malignant tumors of the digestive system. 

Key words: Malignant tumors of the digestive system, Incidence, Age, Joinpoint analysis

中图分类号: 

  • R735