关键词: 肺癌, 死亡率, 发病率, 趋势分析, 预测

Abstract: Objective To analyze the trend of lung cancer incidence and mortality among urban areas in Guangzhou and predict the mortality of lung cancer from 2016 to 2025 in order to provide baseline data for lung cancer prevention strategies. Methods The Joinpoint model was used to analyze the trend of lung cancer incidence from 2002 to 2015 and the trend of lung cancer mortality from 1972 to 2015 in Guangzhou urban areas by calculating the annual percentage change（APC）. The ARIMA model was used to predict the mortality of lung cancer in Guangzhou urban areas from 2016 to 2025. Results From 1972 to 2015，the crude mortality of lung cancer increased from 13.65/10⁵ to 56.11/10⁵（APC=3.3%，P<0.001）. It was predicted that the lung cancer mortality would continue to increase year by year in the future，and reach 65.78/10⁵ in 2025，with an average annual growth rate of 1.60%. The crude incidence rate of lung cancer increased during the period of 2002 to 2015 from 51.84/10⁵ to 68.65/10⁵（APC=2.3%，P<0.05）. Conclusions The mortality of lung cancer in urban areas of Guangzhou will continue to increase year by year in the next 10 years，and the incidence of lung cancer has increased in the past 13 years on the whole，and lung cancer still poses a threat to the health of urban residents in Guangzhou.

Key words: Lung cancer, Mortality, Incidence, Trend analysis, Prediction