Abstract: Objective To analyze the incidence, mortality and disease burden of cervical cancer in China from 1990 to 2021, and to provide evidence for the prevention of cervical cancer. Methods Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study database, the standardized incidence, standardized mortality and disability⁃adjusted life years (DALY ) rate of cervical cancer were analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model. Based on the age⁃period⁃cohort model, the age, period and cohort effects of cervical cancer were investigated. The grey prediction model GM (1, 1) was used to predict the standardized incidence, standardized mortality and disease burden of cervical cancer from 2022 to 2036. Results From 1990 to 2021, the standardized incidence of cervical cancer in China showed an annually increasing trend ［average annual percentage change (AAPC)=0.39%］. The standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate showed a decreasing trend (AAPCstandardized mortality=-1.34%, AAPCstandardized DALY rate=-1.32%). The results of age⁃period⁃cohort effect showed that from 1990 to 2021, the incidence of cervical cancer in China peaked twice in the 55-59 age group and 70-74 age group, respectively; the DALY rate peaked once in the 50-54 age group; the mortality rate increased annually with the increase of age. The period effect analysis showed that the relative risk (RR) value of incidence of cervical cancer fluctuated with time, and the RR value of mortality and DALYs rate decreased with time. Cohort effect analysis showed that with the change of time, the RR value of incidence showed an upward trend, and the RR value of mortality and DALY rate decreased. The predicted results showed that the standardized incidence of cervical cancer in China will increase from 14.04/10⁵  in 2022 to 16.03/10⁵ in 2036, the standardized mortality will decrease from 4.64/10⁵  in 2022 to 4.03/10⁵ in 2036, and the DALY rate will decrease from 149.99 /10⁵  in 2022 to 129.80 /10⁵  in 2036. Conclusions The standardized incidence of cervical cancer in China is increasing annually, while the standardized mortality rate and DALY rate will decrease year by year in the future. The trend of change is affected by age, period and cohort to varying degrees. In the future, prevention and control strategies should continue to strengthen the coverage of vaccination and screening measures to cope with the challenges brought by the increasing incidence.

Key words: Cervical cancer')">Cervical cancer, Disease burden, Forecasting analysis, Age?period?cohort model