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Chinese Journal of Oncology Prevention and Treatment ›› 2025, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (1): 55-60.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-5671.2025.01.07

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Changing trends in the disease burden of liver cancer in China and the United States from 1990 to 2021 and its predictions

  

  • Online:2025-02-25 Published:2025-03-06

Abstract: Objective To compare the changes and differences in the disease burden and risk factors of liver cancer between China and the United States from 1990 to 2021, predict future trends, and provide evidence⁃based recommendations for liver cancer prevention and control strategies. Methods This study was based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to calculate the age⁃standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age⁃standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age⁃standardized death rate (ASDR) and age⁃standardized disability adjusted life years rate (ASDALYR), as well as the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of each indicator of liver cancer in China and the United States from 1990 to 2021. The Bayesian age⁃period⁃cohort  model was used to predict the disease burden of liver cancer from 2022 to 2035. Results From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of liver cancer in China was higher than that in the United States. In 2021, the ASIR, ASDR, ASPR, and ASDALY of liver cancer in China were 9.52/105, 8.35/105, 13.29/105, and 239.91/105, respectively. In contrast, the corresponding rates in the United States were 5.58/105, 4.24/105, 9.31/105, and 106.24/105, respectively. The disease burden of liver cancer was higher among males than females in both countries, and the incidence, mortality, and disability⁃adjusted life years rate increased with age. From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR (AAPC=-0.31), ASDR (AAPC=-0.79), and ASDALY rate (AAPC=-1.03) for liver cancer in China showed a declining trend. In contrast, in the United States the ASIR (AAPC=2.81), ASDR (AAPC=2.43) and ASDALY rates (AAPC=2.29) all demonstrated an increasing trend. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection were the leading risk factors for liver cancer⁃related deaths in China, whereas HCV infection, drug use and alcohol use were the predominant risk factors in the United States. It is projected that the disease burden of liver cancer in China will show an overall declining trend from 2022 to 2035, while in the United States, it is expected to slightly increase during the same period. Conclusions Although the disease burden of liver cancer in China is declining, it remains higher than that in the United States. Continued efforts to strengthen prevention and control measures for liver cancer are essential, particularly among men and middle⁃aged to elderly populations.

Key words: Liver cancer, Disease burden, Joinpoint regression model, Risk factors, Predictive analysis

CLC Number: 

  • R735.7