关键词: 肺癌, 发病率, 死亡率, 年龄?时期?队列模型, 疾病负担

Abstract: Objective To analyze the trends of the incidence and mortality of lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2019, providing a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of lung cancer in China. Methods The incidence and mortality data of lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease database, and used to analyze the changes of lung cancer by Joinpoint regression model. The age⁃period⁃cohort model was established using Stata 17 software for analyzing the changes in lung cancer under the influence of age, period, and cohort factors. Results From 1990 to 2019, the incidence and mortality of lung cancer in the Chinese female, male and the general population showed a gradual upward trend, with an average annual percent change (AAPC) value of 1.176% for the incidence and 0.786% for the mortality. The age effect coefficient for incidence in the Chinese population increased from -152.224 to 229.609, and the period effect coefficient increased from -16.116 to 22.409, with the highest effect coefficient of 65.753 for the 1951 birth cohort; the age group effect coefficient for death in the Chinese population increased from -167.360 to 286.438, and the period effect coefficient increased from -14.792 to 21.162. The cohort effect coefficient of death was the highest in the birth cohort from 1951 to 1956, and the effect coefficient was 69.846. Conclusion The overall incidence and mortality of lung cancer in China showed an upward trend from 1990 to 2019, and both age and period are important factors affecting the occurrence and development of lung cancer in the population. Both the incidence and mortality risks of the cohort, born in between 1951 and 1956, are at the highest level, and prevention and treatment should be focused on this group of people to reduce their disease burden.

Key words: Lung cancer, Incidence, Mortality, Age?period?cohort model, Disease burden