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中国癌症防治杂志

中国癌症防治杂志 ›› 2024, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (2): 180-185.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-5671.2024.02.07

• 癌情监测 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于JoinPoint回归模型的2000—2019年我国肝癌发病与死亡变化趋势

  

  1. 咸阳市儿童医院预防保健科；兰州大学第一医院院感科
  • 出版日期:2024-04-25 发布日期:2024-05-08
  • 通讯作者: 李赞 E-mail：1012621703@qq.com

Trends in the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in China based on the JoinPoint regression model,2000—2019

  • Online:2024-04-25 Published:2024-05-08

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摘要： 目的 分析2000—2019年我国肝癌发病与死亡趋势，为我国肝癌防治策略的制订提供科学依据。 方法 收集2000—2019年全球健康数据交换（the Global Health Data Exchange，GHDx）数据库中我国肝癌发病与死亡个案信息，运用JoinPoint回归模型以平均年度变化百分比（average annual percent change，AAPC）和年度变化百分比（annual percent change，APC）分别描述全人群、不同性别及不同年龄肝癌发病与死亡的变化趋势。结果 2000—2019年我国肝癌发病和死亡总例数分别为4 322 652例和4 093 855例，标化发病率和死亡率分别为11.31/10万和9.68/10万。2000—2019年我国肝癌的发病率呈下降趋势（AAPC=-2.11%），其中2000—2002年和2002—2005年均呈下降趋势，APC分别为-10.55%和-15.45%；2005—2010年和2010—2019年均呈上升趋势，APC分别为0.44%和3.39%；男性和女性人群的发病率均呈下降趋势（AAPC=-1.95%，-2.43%）。2000—2019我国肝癌的死亡率呈下降趋势（AAPC=-2.41%），其中2000—2005年呈下降趋势，APC为-13.52%，2005—2012年和2012—2019年均呈上升趋势，APC分别为0.18%和3.64%；男性和女性人群的死亡率均呈下降趋势（AAPC=-2.34%，-2.60%）。我国肝癌的年龄别发病率及死亡率随着年龄的增长呈不断上升的趋势（AAPC=5.94%，7.10%），其中男性年龄别发病率在10~40岁之间增长较快，80岁之后增长速度有所下降，女性则整体呈上升趋势；男性年龄别死亡率在5~10岁之间增长率较大，女性则随着年龄的增长整体呈上升趋势。结论 2000—2019年我国肝癌发病率及死亡率整体呈下降趋势，男性的发病率和死亡率大于女性，且随年龄增长呈上升趋势，男性及老年人群是肝癌重点关注人群。

关键词: 肝癌, 发病率, 死亡率, JoinPoint模型, 变化趋势

Abstract: bjective To analyze the trend of the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in China from 2000 to 2019, providing scientific reference for the formulation of prevention and treatment strategies for liver cancer. Methods The information of the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in China from 2000 to 2019 was collected from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) Database. The average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC) were used to describe the trends of the incidence and mortality of liver cancer for the entire population, different sex and different age by using the JoinPoint regression model. Results From 2000 to 2019, the total number of incidence and mortality of liver cancer in China were 4,322,652 cases and 4,093,855 cases, respectively. The standardized incidence rate and mortality rate were 11.31/105 and 9.68/105, respectively. The incidence rate of liver cancer in China showed a downward trend from 2000 to 2019 (AAPC=-2.11%), namely, a decline trend in 2000-2002 and 2002—2005, with APC of -10.55% and -15.45%, respectively, and a slight upward trend in 2005—2010 and 2010—2019, with APC of 0.44% and 3.39%, respectively. The incidence rate of both male and female showed a downward trend (AAPC=-1.95%, -2.43%). The mortality rate of liver cancer in China from 2000 to 2019 showed a decreased trend (AAPC=-2.41%), a decline trend during 2000—2005 with APC of -13.52% and a slight upward trend in 2005—2012 and 2012—2019, with APC of 0.18% and 3.64%, respectively. The mortality rate of both male and female showed a downward trend (AAPC=-2.34%, -2.60%). The age⁃specific incidence rate and mortality rate of liver cancer in China increased with the increase of age (AAPC= 5.94%, 7.10%). The age⁃specific incidence rate of liver cancer for male increased rapidly in 10-40 years old and decreased after 80 years old, while it increased overall for female. The age⁃specific mortality rate of liver cancer for male increased rapidly in 5-10 years old, and for female it increased with the increase of age. Conclusions From 2000 to 2019, the incidence rate and mortality rate of liver cancer in China both show overall downward trend. The incidence rate and mortality rate of male are higher than those of female, and increased with the increase of age. The male and elderly population are the key focus groups for liver cancer.

Key words: Liver cancer, Incidence rate, Mortality rate, JoinPoint model, Trends

中图分类号: 

  • R735.7