关键词: 胃癌, 发病, 疾病负担, 年龄-时期-队列模型

Abstract: Objective To analyze the current status and changing trend of the incidence of gastric cancer in Chinese residents from 1992 to 2021, and to assess the influence of age, period and cohort on its long⁃term trend, so as to provide a scientific reference for the formulation of gastric cancer prevention and treatment strategies in China.Methods By using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) database on the incidence of gastric cancer in Chinese residents from 1992 to 2021, the effects of age, period and cohort on the incidence were evaluated based on an age⁃period⁃cohort model.Results From 1992 to 2021, the incidence of gastric cancer in China showed an increasing trend, from 34.35/105 in 1992 to 43.00/105 in 2021, with an average annual increase of 0.79% (95%CI: 0.74%-0.83%). The age⁃effect results of age⁃period⁃cohort model showed that the incidence increased with the increase of age, and reached its peak at 85-89 years old (207.42/10⁵, 95%CI: 197.18/105-218.20/10⁵）.The period⁃effect results showed that the incidence risk of gastric cancer decreased with the passage of time.The incidence risk of gastric cancer was the lowest in 2017—2021 with 2002—2006 as the control group (RR=0.69, 95%CI: 0.67-0.71）.Cohort⁃effect results showed the birth cohort from 1952 to 1956 was used as the control group, and the birth cohort from 2002 to 2006 had the lowest risk (RR=0.40, 95%CI: 0.17-0.91）. Conclusions The incidence of gastric cancer is increasing in China, the elderly population is at a higher risk, and the males in the late birth cohort are at a higher risk than females. Corresponding measures should be taken to further reduce the disease burden of gastric cancer.

Key words: Gastric cancer, Incidence, Disease burden, Age-period-cohort model