Abstract: Objective To analyze the trends in incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021 and to forecast its trajectories from 2022 to 2030. Methods Based on the incidence and mortality data of prostate cancer from fifteen cancer registries in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021, incidence and mortality rates were calculated by age⁃specific and urban⁃rural⁃specific data, respectively. Population standardization was performed using the 2000 Chinese standard population structure to calculate age⁃standardized rate by the Chinese standard population (ASIRC), and the age⁃standardized mortality by the Chinese standard population (ASMRC), the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated. The incidence and mortality rates for 2022—2030 were predicted using the Bayesian Age⁃Period⁃Cohort (BAPC) model. Results From 2010 to 2021, both the incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer in Gansu Province showed an upward trend. The ASIRC increased by 8.12% annually （AAPC=8.12%，95%CI： 3.52%-12.93%， P=0.003）. In urban regions, the ASIRC increased by 14.88% annually （AAPC=14.88%，95%CI： 8.56%-21.57%， P<0.001）, whereas in rural areas, it decreased by 1.17% annually （AAPC=-1.17%， 95%CI： -7.53%-5.60%， P=0.699）. ASMRC showed an annual increase of 6.83% (AAPC=6.83%, 95%CI: -2.93%-17.58%, P=0.177), with urban areas increased by 14.82% annually (AAPC=14.82%, 95%CI: 2.42%-28.73%, P=0.023), while rural areas showed an annual decrease of 1.31% (AAPC =−1.31%, 95%CI: −8.75%-6.74%, P=0.716). The ASIRC increased across all age groups over 40, whereas the ASMRC rose in age groups over 50. Projections for 2022—2030 indicated continued increases in both incidence and mortality rates, with rates expected to reach 39.97/105 and 29.51/105 by 2030, respectively. Conclusions The incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer in Gansu Province increased from 2010 to 2021. Middle⁃aged and elderly populations, as well as urban areas, exhibited higher risks of incidence and mortality. Screening, early diagnosis and treatment for prostate cancer should be strengthened in high⁃risk regions and populations.

Key words:  , Prostate cancer, Incidence, Mortality, Trend analysis, Gansu Province