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中国癌症防治杂志

中国癌症防治杂志 ›› 2025, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (5): 562-567.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-5671.2025.05.06

• 癌情监测 • 上一篇    下一篇

2010—2021年甘肃省前列腺癌发病与死亡变化趋势及未来预测分析

  

  1. 甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院；悉尼大学工程学院；甘肃省肿瘤医院肿瘤流行病研究中心
  • 出版日期:2025-10-25 发布日期:2025-12-03
  • 通讯作者: 刘玉琴 E-mail:liuyq970930@126.com

Trends in incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in Gansu Pro-vince from 2010 to 2021 and its predictive analysis

  • Online:2025-10-25 Published:2025-12-03

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摘要： 目的 分析2010—2021年甘肃省前列腺癌的发病与死亡变化趋势，并预测2022—2030年的发展轨迹。方法 基于2010—2021年甘肃省15个肿瘤登记处的前列腺癌发病与死亡数据，分别按年龄组及城乡分布计算发病率与死亡率。采用2000年中国标准人口结构进行人口标准化，计算中国人口年龄标准化发病率(age⁃standardized incidence by Chinese standard population,ASIRC)、标准化死亡率(age⁃standardized mortality by Chinese standard population,ASMRC)，平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change，AAPC)及其 95%置信区间(confidence intervals,CI)。基于贝叶斯年龄⁃时期⁃队列模型预测2022—2030年的发病率及死亡率。结果 2010—2021年甘肃省前列腺癌发病率和死亡率总体均呈上升趋势，ASIRC年均上升8.12%（AAPC=8.12%，95%CI：3.52%~12.93%，P=0.003），其中城市地区年均上升14.88%（AAPC=14.88%，95%CI：8.56%~21.57%，P<0.001），而农村地区年均下降1.17%（AAPC=-1.17%，95%CI：-7.53%~5.60%，P=0.699）；ASMRC年均上升6.83%（AAPC=6.83%，95%CI：-2.93%~17.58%，P=0.177），其中城市地区年均上升14.82%（AAPC=14.82%，95%CI：2.42%~28.73%，P=0.023），农村地区年均下降1.31%（AAPC=-1.31%，95%CI：-8.75%~6.74%，P=0.716）。ASIRC在40岁以上各年龄组均呈上升趋势，ASMRC在50岁以上各年龄组均呈上升趋势。预测2022—2030 年甘肃省前列腺癌发病率及死亡率均呈上升趋势，2030年发病率将达到39.97/10万，死亡率将达到29.51/10万。结论 2010—2021年甘肃省前列腺癌发病率及死亡率均上升，中老年群体和城市地区的发病和死亡风险较高，应加强对高危地区和人群的前列腺癌筛查与早诊早治工作。

关键词: 前列腺癌, 发病, 死亡, 趋势分析, 甘肃省

Abstract: Objective To analyze the trends in incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021 and to forecast its trajectories from 2022 to 2030. Methods Based on the incidence and mortality data of prostate cancer from fifteen cancer registries in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021, incidence and mortality rates were calculated by age⁃specific and urban⁃rural⁃specific data, respectively. Population standardization was performed using the 2000 Chinese standard population structure to calculate age⁃standardized rate by the Chinese standard population (ASIRC), and the age⁃standardized mortality by the Chinese standard population (ASMRC), the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated. The incidence and mortality rates for 2022—2030 were predicted using the Bayesian Age⁃Period⁃Cohort (BAPC) model. Results From 2010 to 2021, both the incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer in Gansu Province showed an upward trend. The ASIRC increased by 8.12% annually （AAPC=8.12%，95%CI： 3.52%-12.93%， P=0.003）. In urban regions, the ASIRC increased by 14.88% annually （AAPC=14.88%，95%CI： 8.56%-21.57%， P<0.001）, whereas in rural areas, it decreased by 1.17% annually （AAPC=-1.17%， 95%CI： -7.53%-5.60%， P=0.699）. ASMRC showed an annual increase of 6.83% (AAPC=6.83%, 95%CI: -2.93%-17.58%, P=0.177), with urban areas increased by 14.82% annually (AAPC=14.82%, 95%CI: 2.42%-28.73%, P=0.023), while rural areas showed an annual decrease of 1.31% (AAPC =−1.31%, 95%CI: −8.75%-6.74%, P=0.716). The ASIRC increased across all age groups over 40, whereas the ASMRC rose in age groups over 50. Projections for 2022—2030 indicated continued increases in both incidence and mortality rates, with rates expected to reach 39.97/105 and 29.51/105 by 2030, respectively. Conclusions The incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer in Gansu Province increased from 2010 to 2021. Middle⁃aged and elderly populations, as well as urban areas, exhibited higher risks of incidence and mortality. Screening, early diagnosis and treatment for prostate cancer should be strengthened in high⁃risk regions and populations.


Key words:  , Prostate cancer, Incidence, Mortality, Trend analysis, Gansu Province

中图分类号: 

  • R737.25